This year will be the beginning of the end for printed Yellow Pages and the end of the beginning for native advertising. This reflects just two of the “Analyst Picks & Predictions” that BIA/Kelsey published this week.

Other 2014 analyst predictions honed in on the evolution of search and discovery, the growth of the “sharing economy” and the burgeoning impact of digital agencies, and many other topics relevant to players in the local media and promotions ecosystem.

In total, seven BIA/Kelsey analysts weighed in with 15 predictions, with many more left on the cutting room floor. Last week, our analyst team previewed some of the predictions on a Google Hangout. Tomorrow, a team of analysts will highlight a few of the predictions on a webinar at 2 p.m. U.S. Eastern time.

Over the next week, BIA/Kelsey analysts will also post their “unabridged” predictions for 2014, offering predictions in their area of expertise that didn’t make it into the published predictions. Check out mobile analyst Mike Boland’s full slate of predictions, and look for other analyst to weigh in with theirs in the coming days.

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Like we do every January, BIA/Kelsey analysts huddle to formulate predictions for the coming year in respective areas of domain expertise.  Earlier today, we released a report that highlights picks across local media coverage areas, and Thursday we’ll do a webcast.

For more color on the predictions that pertain to mobile, below is the “director’s cut”. These are areas I’ve been watching most, and where I think they’re moving. It’s pretty clear from the momentum in these areas that it’s going to be an action packed year for mobile.

1. U.S. Mobile Ad Market Exceeds $10B

We expect the U.S. mobile ad market to exceed $10 billion this year. And the location targeted portion of that ad spend will approach 40 percent. This includes all mobile ad formats including developing areas like social native ads (i.e. FB mobile news feed ads).

Our figures also take into account the growth of search ads (currently the largest share of mobile ad revenue) and what Google’s Enhanced Campaigns will do. This was one key growth driver in our forecast, as Enhanced Campaigns will accelerate mobile advertiser adoption.

The more populated search bid marketplaces that result will also raise bid pressure and increase cost per click rates for certain keywords and in certain locales. Higher CPCs will in turn boost mobile ad revenue further for Google and mobile publishers/developers alike.

What to watch for: The longstanding lag in mobile ad rates will begin to reverse as sources of premium ad rates continue to be found. That includes native social ads on places like Instagram, attribution, and higher performing location targeted ads from companies like xAd.

2. The Discovery Channel

Big data will continue to collide with mobile, inspiring app layer innovation in the form of personalized local discovery tools like Google Now. These will tap growing sources such as email, weather, location and behavior, to become better predictive engines for content delivery.

This discovery paradigm will also compel different user interfaces than the SERP based format that ruled the desktop. Push alerts will engage users outside of apps and swipeable card-based interfaces will replace traditional SERPs within many apps. We’re already seeing this.

Push alerts are executed well by Find & Save, and card based interfaces can be seen in local discovery (weotta, Google Now), social (Tinder), and multimedia (Swell). These more intuitive engagement points boost user inputs (sentiment) by which to base ongoing discovery.

What to watch for: This data-driven content delivery “push” won’t just apply to apps but also ads. Data will be a key driver in more effective ad delivery and thus squeezing more value out of mobile advertising, per the numbers in the above prediction.

3. How Much is That Dongle in the Window?

Real time product and transaction data will be a key battleground in the continued evolution of mobile local shopping. This will come into play at the app layer (shopping apps, product finders) as well as location targeted ads that specify product availability.

The key here will be data. Retailigence has done some impactful stuff with data sets that take form in an API for app developers and advertisers to add product inventory to mobile shopping experiences. This will become vital over time.

What to watch for: The next inflection point will be in indoor location and shopper engagement apps and technologies built around iBeacon. “Demand pricing” will be the wild card when big data can segment audiences for yield optimization via personalized offers.

4. SMB-Facing Mobile:

The local media sector will slow down it’s enamored view of consumer-based mobile apps as the shiny new thing; and take a more measured approach to mobile adoption and product development. This will involve turning attention to business-facing apps

Tools that help SMBs acquire new business and run their business on the go will be the name of the game. This will include operations like appointment scheduling and payment processing; and other back office tools accessed and managed in a mobile interface.

What to watch for: Merchant-facing mobile tools will shine and grow most within local business categories like restaurants and home services, where proprietors are in constant motion. This will be a key component of the “OS for SMBs” trend we’re covering.

5. Mobile Value Lies in MAUs (for now):

Seemingly illogical valuations will continue for mobile apps without revenue (Snapchat anyone?). This will be based mostly on the premium for user acquisition and engagement — due in turn to escalating competition in app marketplaces to sustain active usage.

The most successful and highly valued apps will continue to be those that inherently lock in users for active and recurring engagement (i.e. Tinder, Instagram, Snapchat). Foreseeable revenue models be damned; scalable and recurring active usage is the name of the game.

What to watch for: These success factors will continue to rule the mobile app marketplace in the near term, but could begin to deflate later in the year as app fatigue compels a shakeout and consolidation (read: Facebook) of apps oriented towards social sharing.

Wild Card: The Internet of Things Goes Local

The Post-PC era will continue to broaden beyond smartphones to include wearables, biometrics, in-auto and all the sensor driven technology that surrounds us in the Internet of Things. This will change development paradigms around what we consider “mobile”.

Local implications abound, considering the personalized commercial needs that the internet of things uncovers. Think home services (the connected home), auto (in-car diagnostics), and local search (Google Glass). Local will be a big benefactor of the Internet of Things.

What to watch for: The biggest challenge will be developing apps with consistent brand experiences across myriad form factors, yet optimize native experiences for each one. Best practices in multi-screen product design so far can be seen from Netflix, Spotify and HBOGo.

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This year is the year of many things. The year of attribution. The year of native advertising. The year that term “SMB” loses its meaning. The year that marks the tipping point in digital transformation. It’s going to be a busy year.

Every January, BIA/Kelsey analysts apply their experience, knowledge and gut instincts to divine the likely key trends and developments for the coming year. Next week BIA/Kelsey will release these premonitions in its 2014 “Analyst Picks & Predictions” report.

To preview the report, we gathered a sampling of our analysts on a Google Hangout to share a few of this year’s picks. Joining me were VP of Consulting and social media maven Jed Williams and the newest member of the BIA/Kelsey analyst team, Senior Director of Industry Strategy & Insight Abid Chaudhry.

Williams offer the prediction that “Native Advertising Achieves Local Scale.” Rather than re-purposing an ad format designed for a different medium, native exploits the characteristics of a new form. Facebook’s Sponsored Stories is perhaps the mostly widely cited example of this.

To date, native has not achieved local scale, largely because it is so  new. Very small, local businesses tend to be advertising laggards rather than trendsetters.

Williams contends the stars are aligning for the “gradual movement of native advertising downstream, to be more accessible to the sell side [local resellers] and a bit more accessible to the buys side, to [include] some small businesses.”

So what’s happening to drive this trend? More efforts to adopt standards around ad formats, creative and campaign metrics, all of which make it easier for local sellers to offer native, and for local buyers to wrap their heads around it. Williams cautioned that very small business adoption of native is still a ways off. He cast the conversation about native in the larger context of content marketing. Until small businesses fully understand and embrace content marketing, they are not likely to embrace its progeny native advertising.

Picking up on the very small business discussion, Chaudhry predicted that in 2014, marketers will essentially blow up the old SMB (small and medium size businesses) definition and replace it with a newer segmentation that is ultimately more useful.

“To Jed’s point, content marketing, engagement marketing and the need for standardization of how we approach the omni-channel focus of all the different kinds of things a small business can do will force solutions providers to start rethinking how they look at what an SMB actually is,” Chaudhry said.

So what will this entail? A much clearer segmentation in how marketers approach very small businesses vs. mid-size local businesses vs. national-local (franchisees and local dealers) businesses.

Finally I offered the prediction that other global directory players will announce they are following the path of the Nordics publisher Eniro, which announced last year that in 2014 it will publish its last print Yellow Pages directory in its core market Sweden (that decision had already been implemented in Norway). Eniro was rewarded for its decision with a substantial boost in its share price.

Sign up for next week’s webinar to hear more of BIA/Kelsey’s annual Picks & Predictions.

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