On Demand Local Services — a.k.a the uberfication of everything — continue to expand into new local service verticals. We’re seeing everything from lawyers to weed delivery (you might need those two together). This is the topic of a report I’m writing, and a discussion point in this week’s analyst roundtable.

In addition to ODLS, there’s a report in the works on closed loop marketing by Abid Chaudhry. He discusses in the roundtable how mobile engagement creates a more cross-screen world, making offline attribution increasingly important. We hit on this theme in our last roundtable.

And Charles Laughlin discusses his report in progress on the state of the art of local ad sales. This is a fast moving topic, and a contentious one. Charles examines all schools of thought in the report, co-written by Stacey Sedbrook, including the division of traditional and digital sales forces. Another key topic.

All of these will be published in the coming weeks among other white papers, such as Peter Krasilovsky’s report on card-linked loyalty offers. Though he wasn’t able to join the roundtable, his paper joins the mix with a unique angle that aggregates data and input from the biggest players in the card-linked offers field.

The roundtable video is below and stay tuned for more video (and white papers).

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It’s that time of year again; BIA/Kelsey’s spring release of its local media forecast. This is broken down into its media components, such as Online, TV, Yellow Pages, Mobile, etc… The full forecast will be out in a few weeks. Today we release the first component: Mobile.

Part of the Executive Summary and charts are below. The top-line takeaway is overall U.S. mobile ad revenue growth: $7.2 billion last year to $30.3 billion by 2018. That includes search, display, SMS, video and native social (i.e. FB news feed ads). The latter caused us to dial figures up from last year.

Zeroing in on the forecast’s main theme of location targeted mobile ads, those went from $2.9 billion last year to $15.7 billion in 2018. That makes them 40 percent of overall mobile ad revenues, growing to 52 percent in 2018. There are lots of reasons for that, some of which are outlined below.

Lastly, it’s notable that this forecast release coincides with today’s IAB release of prior year online and mobile audits. It’s good to see accuracy in their figures, especially the mobile numbers which I believe due to parity with the figures I devised. Their $7.1B is just shy of our $7.2B.

To engage over these numbers or for a full copy of the forecast, email my colleague Steve Passwaiter. And we’ll be discussing these figures in greater depth during our Leading in Local conference next month in Atlanta. Email me directly for a discount code at mbolandATbiakelsey.com.

Executive Summary

— Location targeted mobile advertising — the centerpiece of this forecast — is included within total U.S. mobile advertising (see slide 22 for this breakdown).

— To understand the localized portion requires first panning back to the total mobile ad revenue picture. Here, BIA/Kelsey projects revenue to grow from $7.2 billion in 2013 to $30.3 billion in 2018. This projection has increased from our previous forecast (November 2013).

— Increased projections result from guidance from mobile ad networks and ad share leaders such as Google (33 percent of paid clicks now come from mobile devices); and Facebook (53 percent of ad revenues attributed to mobile, up from 23 percent last March).

— Google’s Enhanced Campaigns*, launched in July, will compound these factors by forcing mobile ads on search advertisers (default campaign inclusion). This will accelerate a mobile advertising learning curve and adoption cycle for all search advertisers, including SMBs.

— Enhanced Campaigns will also notably close the current gap between mobile ad rates and desktop equivalents (rates are demand-driven).

— This will play out as an influx of advertisers in Google’s bid marketplace for mobile keywords will naturally boost bid pressure and thus CPCs. There is shift is already underway, evidenced by data shared with us by search marketing agencies.

— The share of the overall mobile ad revenue pie attributed to location based campaigns will grow from 40 percent ($2.9 billion) in 2013 to 52 percent ($15.7 billion) in 2018.

— This share shift remained fairly consistent from our previous forecast, as the factors driving localized mobile ad adoption have remained steady.

— These factors include advertiser demand, higher ad performance for location targeted ad campaigns, and resulting increases in mobile ad rates (CPMs, CPCs).

— Other important factors driving this localized share include the adoption of mobile local advertising tactics (i.e. geo-fencing, click-to-call, click to map) by national advertisers, who account for most U.S. mobile ad spending.

— SMB adoption — a slow but growing share of localized mobile advertising — will likewise impact its growth.

— For national brand advertisers, the shift to location targeted mobile advertising will be driven by their natural evolution to adopt effective, increasingly available, and currently undervalued mobile local ad inventory.

— Innovation among ad networks and ad tech providers (e.g., Enhanced Campaigns) will provide additional incentive and impetus for this transition.

— For SMBs, the sector’s digital media adoption traditionally lags behind national advertisers due to lower levels of tech savvy, budget, time and human resources.

— However, SMB-driven growth is expected throughout our forecast period due to evolving SMB savvy and growing propensity to self-serve with offerings like Google AdWords and Facebook (pull).

— Also at play will be the accelerating mobile innovation, sales and bundling efforts of local media companies (push).

— As an example of the push paradigm, Yelp last month partnered with YP. The publisher’s 4,000 local sales reps will now be armed with Yelp advertising packages, which include mobile presence and distribution.

The post Fresh BIA/Kelsey Data: U.S. Mobile Revs Grow from $7.2B to $30B by 2018 appeared first on BIA/Kelsey - Local Media Watch.

Localizing ad campaigns via geo targeting and local sales is increasingly important. At BIA/Kelsey, of course, the importance of localization for digital ad sales is an article of faith.

Local Sales are not, however, part of the “A” list of impactful issues for media executives. In a poll of media executives attending Operative‘s Op/Ed 2014 event last week in Palm Desert, Local Sales ranked 7th out of 11 features that impact revenues.

It ranked as less impactful than Effectively Scaling Ad Ops; Changes in buying/RFPs; Consultative Selling; Mobile Monetization; Ineffective Technology; and Cross-platform Selling. Video Monetization; Third-party Data; Buy/Sell Automation; and Real-Time Bidding ranked lower than local.

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Localizing ad campaigns via geo targeting and local sales is increasingly important. At BIA/Kelsey, of course, the importance of localization for digital ad sales is an article of faith.

Local Sales are not, however, part of the “A” list of impactful issues for media executives. In a poll of media executives attending Operative‘s Op/Ed 2014 event last week in Palm Desert, Local Sales ranked 7th out of 11 features that impact revenues.

It ranked as less impactful than Effectively Scaling Ad Ops; Changes in buying/RFPs; Consultative Selling; Mobile Monetization; Ineffective Technology; and Cross-platform Selling. Video Monetization; Third-party Data; Buy/Sell Automation; and Real-Time Bidding ranked lower than local.

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BIA/Kelsey examines these differences this week in a new “Spotlight” report using data from the recently completed Wave 17 of the Local Commerce Monitor (LCM). The report is the latest in the ongoing “Spotlight” series that drills down into the LCM data to examine how SMB advertisers acquire and retain customers.

LCM is BIA/Kelsey’s long-running study of how U.S. SMB advertisers are evolving their use of media to acquire and retain customers.

Local mobile advertising is more than a blip on the radar today, and it is expected to grow substantially over the next few years. Projected mobile local advertising revenues represent a subset of total U.S. mobile ad spending, which BIA/Kelsey forecasts to grow from $3.25 billion in 2012 to $16.8 billion in 2017. This puts locally targeted mobile ads at 38% of overall U.S. mobile advertising spending in 2012, growing to 54% in 2017.

The LCM Wave 17 data shows that SMBs that participate in mobile advertising differ from those that do not use mobile advertising in several important ways:

* SMB mobile advertisers have much more aggressive plans for advertising media spending over the next 12 months compared to those who don’t. These SMBs that leverage mobile advertising spent $56,964 in their annual media spend in the last year, more than double those that do not use mobile advertising.

* In the past 12 months, SMB mobile advertisers on average spent 37% more on their budget for digital and online compared to their non-mobile counterparts (28%).

* SMB mobile advertisers advertising are highly engaged with their customers. They tend to use check-in data to understand behavior and monitor basic information related to consumers at a far higher rate than non-mobile SMBs.

* SMB mobile advertisers care very much about their online sentiment; 80% of them perform some sort of monitoring of online properties compared to only 60% of the full sample.

Interested in learning more about LCM Wave 17 or getting a custom cut for your business? Contact Celine Matthiessen at cmatthiessen@biakelsey.com.

We’ll be covering this and other themes in great depth at our upcoming Leading in Local conference, December 10-12 in San Francisco. Be there and join the conversation!

The post Why My Money is on SMB Mobile Advertising appeared first on BIA/Kelsey - Local Media Watch.

Television dominated the Government/Political/Religion (“GPR”) vertical in 2012, according to BIA/Kelsey’s Media Ad View Plus. In 2012, television’s $3.1 billion of advertising from GPR represented nearly 3/4 of total advertising for this vertical.

2012 Government/Political/Religion Ad Spending by Media

The $3.1 billion of GPR advertising represented 15% of the television media’s total ad spend in 2012, with the vast majority of it coming in the Fall (September to November), based on information from the Television Bureau of Advertising (TVB). TVB has studied the spending patterns in the political category for the past several election cycles. The vast majority of political spending occurs in the Fall (September to November), with the exception of primaries, which provide some advertising revenue from January to September, at least in markets within battleground states. “Clearly local TV’s role as the campaign media workhorse has not changed” states the TVB about the 2012 election season.

GPR advertising is cyclical, peaking during big national and local elections, which occur during even years. The more hotly contested the elections are, the better for local television stations. In 2017, an odd year with no major political elections, the GPR advertising landscape is vastly different, with only 19% of GPR advertising revenue going to television. More GPR advertising revenue will be going to direct mail than television in 2017, according to Media Ad View Plus. In odd years, such as 2017, GPR is dominated by smaller local elections, which rely more on direct mail to get their message to voters in their districts rather than advertise to entire television markets.

2017 Government/Political/Religion Ad Spending by Media

The bounty that can be GPR revenue during the even years is not equal across the 210 Nielsen television markets. Markets located in battleground states will see greater GPR advertising spend than markets in states that are heavily red or blue. States such as Ohio, Virginia and Florida have become predictable battlegrounds states. These so called “purple” states see boosts during even years, with the Presidential, Senate and House races.

More information on BIA/Kelsey’s Media Ad View Plus is available here.

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In 2012, television dominated both the Automotive advertising and Government/Political/Religion (“GPR”) verticals, according to BIA/Kelsey’s Media Ad View Plus. More on the GPR vertical later.

Television’s $4.6 billion share of automotive advertising represented 28.4% of total automotive advertising in 2012. This $4.6 billion represents 22% of television’s total advertising revenue in 2012, making it the highest spending vertical for television.

2012 Automotive Ad Spending by Media

Media Ad View Plus’s automotive vertical includes five subcategories: automobile dealers and automotive manufacturers, other motor vehicle dealers, automotive parts and accessories stores, tire dealers, and gasoline stations and automotive repair. Of these, automotive dealers and automotive manufacturers were the predominant advertiser category, accounting for more than $3.8 billion of the total automotive advertising $4.6 billion spent on television.

“If it’s got a screen, automakers want to advertise on it,” said Ad Age in a recent article, Automakers Like Video, But Still Pour Gas On TV For Big Product Launches. While the automakers on Ad Age’s 100 Leading National Advertisers list have been increasing their digital advertising, “they’re also showing enduring faith in the American couch potato, with spending on television increasing from 2011 to 2012. Ad Age attributes the continued popularity of television to the automotive vertical to major product launches. The top five spending automakers, according to Ad Age, are General Motors, Ford, Toyota, Fiat (Chrysler Group) and Honda.

In 2017, television’s share of automotive advertising is expected to increase to 32%, while the shares going to other traditional media such as newspaper and direct mail are expected to decline significantly. Newer media, such as online and mobile, are also expected to increase their share of the automotive pie. Part of this increase can be attributed to the significantly lower GPR revenues expected to be spent on television in 2017. Without GPR dominating television commercials in 2017, as happened in 2012, there will be more inventory available for the other verticals, such as automotive.

More information on Media Ad View Plus is available here.

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According to BIA/Kelsey’s Media Ad View Plus more than 43 percent, or $10.7 billion, of retail advertising dollars went to direct mail in 2012. That $10.7 billion represents 30 percent of direct mail’s total ad spending. Furthermore, BIA/Kelsey doesn’t expect that to change much by 2017, where retail is still projected to spend 43 percent, or $12.3 million, on direct mail.

2012 Retail Ad Spending by Media

So what types of retailers are spending money on direct mail? The largest spending retail specialty is warehouse clubs and supercenters, with $2.35 billion in spending on direct mail in 2012. This is more than double its closest competitor, discount department stores, which spent $1.1 billion.

What attracts retailers to direct mail over other media? According to direct mail companies, unlike ads on radio, television and newspapers, which go out to everyone in the market, direct mail can be targeted to a particular location or demographic, providing a better ROI. This could be valuable to brick-and-mortar retailers with fixed locations. Not everyone subscribes to a newspaper, watches TV, listens to the radio, or owns a computer or smartphone, but everyone gets mail.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) says that direct mail is an old-school marketing method that still works for small businesses. “Direct mail can be an effective part of any marketing campaign. Yes, email, Facebook and even Twitter work for some small businesses, but that doesn’t mean tried and true methods like direct mail should go by the wayside.”

According to BIA/Kelsey’s Media Ad View Plus, overall direct mail accounted for nearly $35.8 billion out of a total $132.2 billion in U.S. advertising dollars. That’s a whopping 27.1 percent of total advertising dollars, making it by far the largest media category. Newspapers, the next largest medium, accounted for 17.1 percent of total advertising dollars in 2012, followed by television in third place with 15.7 percent.

BIA/Kelsey expects this to change somewhat by 2017, with direct mail still on top with 25.1 percent of total advertising dollars, followed by television with 15.1 percent, with newspapers falling to third with 11.9 percent.

More information on Media Ad View Plus is available here.

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BIA/Kelsey’s advertising revenue estimates illustrate that national advertisers play a significant role in the purchasing of advertising opportunities across many different local media outlets. In 2012, our estimates are that national brands spent $45.2 billion dollars in local media advertising such as direct mail, television, print yellow pages, radio, out-of-home and more. This amount accounts for more than a third (33.6 percent) of all spending in local media.

Ultimately, to be successful, national advertisers need to reach audiences in specific areas with possibly different messages depending upon geography and/or the age/demographics of the audience consuming these media.

Where does this all go? Will national advertisers continue to utilize local media outlets to entice new and retain old customers? With the new opportunities sprouting up in the digital arena, will national advertisers take the lead in taking advantage of these opportunities?

Balihoo’s new study just released from the Chief Marketing Officer (CMO) Council reveals that 59 percent of national marketers report that local demand generation is essential to their business growth, yet only 7 percent feel they have effective campaigns in place. The report, titled, “Brand Automation for Local Activation,” (download exec summary) and conducted in partnership with Balihoo, concludes that that the typical marketing mix lacks in strategy, automation and accountability leading to a localization scale gap that results in delayed and less effective local roll-outs of national brand campaigns.

We’ll be continuing the discussion at our LEADING IN LOCAL: The National Impact event, March 18-20 in Boston. Starting day one will be our SuperForum Highlight: National Brands, Local Channels. More info on the agenda is here. Registration is here.

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