But even with that good news, why do we still believe that the advertising marketplace will only see 2 percent growth in 2010? Why do we expect only moderate growth in those advertising revenues for the next few years?

The simple answer is JOBS! Today’s announcement of a 95,000 total decrease in jobs for the month of September 2010 (and only a 64,000 increase in private employment), a full year after the recession ended, is noticeably weak. Job growth has always been a lagging indicator of the strength of the economy, but the lag feels appreciably long this time.

Moreover, the decrease in employment during this recession was so significant. According to a recent Milken Institute study, 8.4 million jobs were lost during the recent recession, 4.7 million more jobs lost than the recession of 2000-2001. So, the uncertainty surrounding this recovery rests with the remaining BIG HOLE OF JOBS that the economy must claw its way out of. And it is not just with the people who lost their jobs and have not found a substitute, but also the larger group of working people who are somewhat concerned about their own jobs as a result.

So where does this leave the advertising marketplace? Clearly, some advertisers are going to hold back until they see a recovery in the job market. Automotive advertising is already showing some strength this year, but remember that they really contracted their spending last year. Other advertisers are taking a more “wait and see” attitude, waiting till job growth is better, consumer confidence and the resulting consumer spending increases. If we see that job growth getting stronger in the next few months, then certainly advertising will follow. If we don’t, tepid advertising growth will continue.

The post Is the Economy Strong Enough for an Advertising Recovery? appeared first on BIA/Kelsey - Local Media Watch.

Minutes ago, the fabled iPad was unveiled by Steve Jobs at Yerba Buena Gardens in San Francisco. An exciting moment: I’m at my desk constantly hitting refresh on the Engadget live blog coverage to get details.

Though I’ve kept an open ear to the pre-launch frenzy, I mostly avoided covering it here because the dial was already turned up way too high for a device that no one had seen.

We heard lots of speculation. Based simply on the law of large numbers (and some leaks), a few on-target calls are likely to result from thousands of speculating analysts, bloggers and reporters.

Here’s what turned out to be on-target:

• Name: iPad
• Touch screen device that resembles a larger iPhone/iPod touch
• Device built for portability of iPhone but larger screen of a MacBook
• Apps-centric interface for home screen navigation (though customizable)
• Accelerometer-controlled dual mode landscape and portrait
• Full capacitive multi-touch display
• 10 hours of battery life
• 9.7 inch display, 0.5 inches thin, 1.5 pounds
• Wi-Fi 802.11n & Bluetooth 2.1
• Available in 16, 32 and 64 GB Flash storage capacity
• Like iPhone, Syncs with PC via USB (adapter required)
• Also like iPhone, mobile connectivity is Wi-Fi plus 3G dual mode on some models
• Deal with AT&T for $29.99 for unlimited data ($14.99 for 250MB). Compares with average wireless broadband access for laptops (via dongle) of about $60.
• Price: starts at $499 and goes up to $829, based on a matrix of options:

Additional specs:

• iTunes and YouTube HD built in
• Docking station available for keyboard & desktop setup
• Photo viewing/sharing showcased as a central use, along with calendar, e-mail
• Web browsing is also central component, employing what looks like a larger version of mobile Safari
• Google Maps and Street View showcased in Jobs’ demo; so much for Bing rumors (for now)
• Video capabilities showcased; lots of power under the hood with a 1GHz Apple A4 chip
• Environmentally friendly (arsenic and mercury free)
• Can run all iPhone apps (now up to 140,000)
• Additional support for larger screen now included in iPhone SDK for developers to optimize apps for iPad (optional)
• More robust gaming apps showcased for this additional capability: partnership with EA will yield many games
• Brushes — capacitive touch-based sketching app will be powerful tool for graphic designers
• As expected, device built for reading newspaper: NY Times example showcased
• iBooks app is built in eReader with Kindle-like “e-ink” (ePub format)
• Online bookstore looks to be an offshoot of iTunes and includes partnerships with Simon & Schuster, Harper Collins, Penguin and others (sounds textbook-heavy … student target market?)
• iWorks productivity suite rebuilt for the iPad (again, likely a student play here)
• Device will begin shipping in 60 days for non-3G models and 90 days for 3G models

Jobs ended the presentation by stressing that more than 75 million people already know how to use this product. In other words, the design is built on the interface and mobility of the iPhone and iPod Touch (also interesting that we get to hear the previously undisclosed number of iPhones and iPod touches shipped).

This is Jobs’ preemptive answer to the question of whether the company can pull off a third class of products between mobile device and laptop. My gut feeling is yes. Apple is a market maker. Period. This is yet another game changer from Cupertino.

More thoughts to come over the coming hours and years.

The post Hello, iPad, We’ve Been Expecting You appeared first on BIA/Kelsey - Local Media Watch.