What does a newspaper company do when it loses its affiliation with a major vertical brand? That was the question for The San Jose Mercury News and some of the other Digital First Media papers on New Years Day, when the company’s partnership with Cars.com ended.

The Digital First newspapers knew that most car dealers wouldn’t want to abandon an existing relationship with a partner like Cars.com, a major source of leads and online presence. The answer? Change the value proposition that local car dealers had with the newspaper. For instance, it could complement the Cars.com relationship by developing a service agency-like model. Specifically,it could track where the dealers’ leads came from, and provide actionable information about these active car shoppers.

To this end, Digital First signed up with Cupertino-based TapClassifieds, and its growing, 15 person TapClassifieds Auto division. As part of its program, TapClassifieds evaluates websites, landing pages, text emails and credit applications as they come in. It also clean ups a dealer’s inventory to make landing pages more aesthetic, and to track results.

Tracking dealer results from Craig’s List — a major channel for dealer visibility and source of leads — has proved especially important. The site switched to a premium classifieds model Dec. 3, killing a dealer’s ability to “spam” the site — along with a dealer’s rivals. Consequently, dealers needed to review their efforts on Craig’s List, and pursue alternatives.

Another major task for TapClassifieds: make sure that listings on sites like Craig’s List and eBay Motors are compliant with their regulations. They must remain compliant with the site’s terms of use or see their accounts shuttered without warning or recourse.

“It’s a far cry from the old days, when people would just want to see inventory,” said TapClassifieds COO Jeff Herr, a longtime digital newspaper vet who left MediaNews Group two years ago to join the startup. “There are many, many tasks that you need to do to support the dealer. We are a service bureau.” Pricing for the service runs $15 per month per car, adds Herr.

Digital First has been testing the model with Bay Area auto dealers, and it has now announced a strategic partnership to take the program across all of its markets. DFM properties in Philadelphia, Connecticut, Texas and New Mexico are already up and running.

For TapClassifieds, Herr says that autos are the tip of the iceberg. RV Dealers, real estate and vacation rentals will each launch soon. “Real estate is unplowed Earth,” he notes.

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Craig’s List is going to begin charging used car dealers $5 for 30 day placements, beginning December 3. The new fee is the latest stage in the slow evolution of Craig’s List to a partially premium site that still offers free services to individuals while charging lower-than-market rates to commercial enterprises.

The classifieds leader, which serves 486 U.S. markets and 214 overseas markets, imposed $5 fees on event tickets last year. It previously imposed $10 fees on “therapeutic” ads for sex workers and others; $10 fees for apartment listers in New York; and in some markets, $25 for recruitment ads (but $75 in San Francisco). Most of Craig’s List revenues are earned in its top 28 markets — it remains a steadfastly urban site — and the vast majority of its revenue comes from the recruitment ads.

According to tallies by AIM Group, Craig’s List currently has 3.9 million auto ads in its top 28 markets. Some of its markets (i.e. Dallas, Miami, Houston, Seattle and Phoenix) are clearly more car-centric than others .

The AIM Group suggests that just 10-15 percent of the sites used car ads might be dealer ads. Based on that estimate, we’d calculate that such ads might bring $1.95 million to $2.925 million per month, or roughly $23.4 million to $35.1 million per year. Smaller markets might bring in another 5 percent .

In our view, the imposition of dealer fees for used cars are mostly a good thing. They will likely end the surfeit of “fake” car ads designed to get consumers to the dealer. They’ll also make the ads easier to manage, as dealers currently post (and repost) ads in an effort to stay on top of the listings with high volumes of ads. The repostings have hurt Craig’s List efficiency, as the same Honda Accord EX 2013 would come up multiple times in user searchers. The imposition of apartment fees in New York similarly were something of a public service for all involved.

The downside for auto dealers is they still need to do a credit card payment for each listing, car by car. Industry analysts, however, suggests that Craig’s List might be developing a bulk signup program.

One question we have is whether the auto fees precede a similar program for real estate. Craig’s List has been aggressively blocking both auto and real estate hyperlinking to prevent third party sites from piggybacking its content.

Another question we have is the competitive threat posed by Craig’s List to car sites and other vertical sites. We have seen a growing use of Craig’s List by various vertical players (apartment managers etc.). We believe that the auto community is less vulnerable than other verticals, however, given the sophisticated search, tech and content features provided by leading auto sites.

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Facebook isn’t obvious as a major competitor for auto advertising. But Google certainly watches Facebook’s every move in autos, as it worries that advertising that might have otherwise gone to its services is being cannibalized by social media.

Is it paranoid? We don’t think so. The car makers are definitely focused on digital spending, but social media represents a real alternative to Google’s assortment of search, video and display. Facebook represents 65 percent of all social media conversations about autos, per JD Power.

Earlier this year, Facebook added the capability for auto marketers to target shoppers based on car makes and models and their online purchase histories. And yesterday, Facebook grabbed Google’s Detroit-based Auto Industry Director Michelle Morris, a seven-year Google vet, to help lead auto sales. Morris is expected to engage current Facebook clients, including Hyundai, Nissan, Volkswagen, Ford, Chrysler,GM , Toyota and Subaru while also developing new relationships.

“With Facebook’s offerings, automotive marketers can build and strengthen brand opinion, consideration and loyalty while maximizing efficiencies at every level of the purchase funnel,” noted a Facebook press release.

Recent ComScore data shows that social media automotive spending is up 130 percent, and that 14 percent of all online auto ad spending is now spent online. Nissan outpaces the rest of the industry by spending 20 percent of its online spending on social media. Most of the social spending is geared around boosting engagement, influence and credibility, and includes a mix of auto forums and “mass” social media.

At Interactive Local Media in San Francisco Dec. 10-12, we have great keynotes from Facebook VP of Product Marketing Brian Boland and Google Director of Global Mobile Solutions Brendon Kraham. You can register here.

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With the majority of U.S. auto buyers now using online and mobile in their research, the auto sites are clarifying their individual roles in the auto ecosystem – and making adjustments where necessary.

This week, a panel of car site leaders at the JD Power Auto Roundtable in Las Vegas – including Cars.com, Edmunds.com, Kelley Blue Book and TrueCar.com — suggested there were two extremes among them. On one side, you have the national verticals that are the successors to the classifieds industry and provide rich information about cars and the buying journey, lead by AutoTrader.com and Cars.com. On the other side, you have sites focused more on providing price estimates for autos, such as Edmunds, Kelley Blue Book and TrueCar.com.

Finding a balance between pricing and dealer engagement has been the industry’s challenge.

“Price, while important, is not the sole principal,” said Cars.com SVP Alex Vetter. Most people want to know who to buy from and the quality of the service department. Taking care of customers post sale means a lot to them and they will pay more than the lowest price.

Indeed, a focus on price is seen as a “race to the bottom.” “As marketers, we are touting unique value propositions, product quality and things we want to promote.” Vetter notes that Cars.com’s deep editorial content, and growing mobile channel, provides context and relevance for the site’s network of 20,000 dealers.

Edmunds.com President and COO Seth Berkowitz , however, suggested that the presentation of price really is important – so long as it is provided in a rich context. By providing price points that have been paid by other customers, along with price quotes by the dealers, better trust is fostered with consumers. When dealers make promises and keep them, we’ve seen a 10% bump in satisfaction ratings, said Berkowitz – an important boost, as dealer profits are often made less from sales as loyalty efforts such as car trade ins and service.

Berkowitz said that the site now works with 6,000 dealers and is becoming more dealer-centric, rather than relying so much on advertising from the manufacturers. The site’s revenue split is currently 60 percent advertising, 40 percent dealers. By next year, it should be 50/50.

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Unlike other media, radio advertising is quite diverse, generating 10% or more of its advertising from five different verticals. Retail (18%), Financial/Insurance (17%), Restaurants (14.5%), Automotive (14%), and Technology (10%) accounted for almost 3/4 of advertising on radio in 2012.

Diving into the top vertical, Retail, warehouse clubs and supercenters accounted for the largest share of retail advertising, 22.7%, just as it was in other media I’ve discussed, such as newspaper and direct mail.

Three out of eleven subcategories accounted for a combined 67% of the advertising spend in the financial/insurance category: commercial banking, securities brokerage and auto insurance.

Media Ad View Plus breaks the restaurant category into seven subcategories. Three of these subcategories accounted for 83.5% of advertising revenue in this category for radio: full-service restaurants, supermarkets and other grocery stores (not including convenience stores) and quick-service/fast food restaurants.

For automotive, auto dealers and manufacturers accounted for nearly 77% of the category’s advertising spending, much as it did for television and newspaper.

In the Technology category, the wired telecommunications carriers and wireless telecommunications carriers (except satellite) accounted for a combined 72% of the advertising spend in the category.

BIA/Kelsey projects radio advertising revenue to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.85% from 2012 through 2017. In 2017, radio advertising is projected to reach nearly $16.9 billion, representing 11.4% of total advertising spend for the year. Retail, financial/insurance, restaurants, automotive and technology are expected to remain the top categories for radio advertising spending in 2017.

More information on Media Ad View Plus is available here.

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In a previous blog post, I mentioned that newspaper was the medium of choice for real estate advertising in 2012. However, while newspaper accounted for 27.7% of real estate advertising spend, the real estate vertical accounted for only 2.5% of newspaper advertising revenue. Retail (23.5%) and automotive (16%) were actually the largest vertical categories advertising with newspapers in 2012, according to BIA/Kelsey’s Media Ad View Plus.

Approximately 22% of the retail advertising revenue going to newspapers came from one of the 28 retail subcategories broken out in Media Ad View Plus: warehouse clubs and supercenters. For automotive, more than 77% of the advertising revenue going to newspapers came from automotive dealers and manufacturers. This isn’t surprising, as both warehouse clubs/supercenters and automotive dealers/manufacturers have the highest spend in their respective categories across all media.

BIA/Kelsey projects that newspaper advertising revenue will continue falling, reaching $21.3 billion in 2013, a loss of 5.4%. By 2017, BIA/Kelsey expects newspaper’s share of total advertising spend to have continued to decline, falling to just under 12% of total advertising spend. Newspaper advertising revenues are expected to fall from $22.5 billion to $17.8 billion, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of negative 4.7%. This projection places newspaper in third place in advertising spend, behind direct mail and television, but just ahead of radio and online.

With advertising revenue dropping, newspapers are looking for alternative sources of revenue. “Digital pay plans are being adopted at 450 of the country’s 1,380 dailies and appear to be working not just at The New York Times but also at small and mid-sized papers. Twinned with print subscription and single-copy price increases, the digital paywall movement has circulation revenues holding steady or rising. Together with the other new revenue streams, these added circulation revenues are rebalancing the industry’s portfolio from its historic over-dependence on advertising,” says The Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism’s State of the News Media in 2013 report.

BIA/Kelsey projects that in 2012, online represented 13.8% of newspaper’s advertising revenue. This is expected to increase to 20.5% in 2017.

More information on Media Ad View Plus is available here.

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In 2012, television dominated both the Automotive advertising and Government/Political/Religion (“GPR”) verticals, according to BIA/Kelsey’s Media Ad View Plus. More on the GPR vertical later.

Television’s $4.6 billion share of automotive advertising represented 28.4% of total automotive advertising in 2012. This $4.6 billion represents 22% of television’s total advertising revenue in 2012, making it the highest spending vertical for television.

2012 Automotive Ad Spending by Media

Media Ad View Plus’s automotive vertical includes five subcategories: automobile dealers and automotive manufacturers, other motor vehicle dealers, automotive parts and accessories stores, tire dealers, and gasoline stations and automotive repair. Of these, automotive dealers and automotive manufacturers were the predominant advertiser category, accounting for more than $3.8 billion of the total automotive advertising $4.6 billion spent on television.

“If it’s got a screen, automakers want to advertise on it,” said Ad Age in a recent article, Automakers Like Video, But Still Pour Gas On TV For Big Product Launches. While the automakers on Ad Age’s 100 Leading National Advertisers list have been increasing their digital advertising, “they’re also showing enduring faith in the American couch potato, with spending on television increasing from 2011 to 2012. Ad Age attributes the continued popularity of television to the automotive vertical to major product launches. The top five spending automakers, according to Ad Age, are General Motors, Ford, Toyota, Fiat (Chrysler Group) and Honda.

In 2017, television’s share of automotive advertising is expected to increase to 32%, while the shares going to other traditional media such as newspaper and direct mail are expected to decline significantly. Newer media, such as online and mobile, are also expected to increase their share of the automotive pie. Part of this increase can be attributed to the significantly lower GPR revenues expected to be spent on television in 2017. Without GPR dominating television commercials in 2017, as happened in 2012, there will be more inventory available for the other verticals, such as automotive.

More information on Media Ad View Plus is available here.

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