Ad attribution is one of the most challenging analytic problems in marketing today. Who saw which ads, and what purchases resulted? It’s a sticky challenge, especially in an increasingly multi-screen world. As a result, many advertisers use simplified models for attributing customer response. For example, the last click model attributes conversions to the last message a consumer saw.

But smartphone penetration and the age of big data are coming together to create an environment where deeper ad attribution is attainable. This includes the traditionally elusive area of offline ad attribution — connecting the dots between digital engagement and real world (read: local) conversions. The mobile device now provides that link (see our white paper on this topic).

The discussion surfaced again at ad:tech last week. Microsoft data scientist Lin Huang outlined the company’s keyword assist model wherein “the data drives the attribution.” In other words, there’s no pre-existing template about how attribution is assigned. Instead, Bing data (not to be confused with Big Data) determines what search terms naturally cluster together, and what activities they drive.

If a Hyatt property in Hawaii runs a display campaign, impressions resulting from a search cluster could include terms like “Hawaii vacation” or “Hawaii trips.” The attribution weighing of those terms can be measured against a subsequent search for “scuba Hawaii” that directly resulted in a click to book at the Hyatt property. So the earlier — and sometimes more influential — search can get its due credit.

Google and several others have their own flavors of full-funnel attribution. Lin Huang believes the Microsoft’s keyword assist model is “beyond parity” with Google’s latest approach, but of course his inherent bias should be noted. And his examples are mostly around e-commerce transactions, which are of course notable. But offline attribution is where it gets interesting… and very local.

This is important for any advertiser targeting local markets, given that offline is where 93 percent of U.S. commerce happens. Connecting the dots between digital and analog worlds will be the holy grail of local advertising (cue: John Wannamaker quote). And mobile is the key to unlocking that famously illusive challenge, given that it physically goes to the store with you.

So what do these offline attribution models look like? Many extrapolate by creating ad-exposed control groups and measure geographic sales lifts among those groups. There are also ways to measure ad effectiveness by linking social identity to purchase method (see Facebook/Datalogix partnership). Mobile payments will ultimately clarify the path to purchase, but we’re still very early there.

As with most new technologies, initial adoption for all of the above will be with national and brand advertisers. SMBs will adopt through agencies, media companies, and other intermediaries. We expect that SMBs with the greatest economic incentive will move first to sophisticated attribution. Think: high-consideration / high-value purchases like legal, financial, medical and automotive.

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Steve Marshall contributed original reporting and insights to this post

The post Local Advertising: It's all About Full-Funnel Attribution appeared first on BIA/Kelsey - Local Media Watch.

Last month we released a white paper in tandem with Verve Mobile on the emerging art of mobile and cross platform ad attribution. It’s the holy grail of advertising in being able to track campaign effectiveness post ad engagement (cue John Wanamaker quote).

One thing I’ve been thinking of a lot is how all of the innovations in location based ad targeting and attribution will collide with the parallel advancements in indoor mapping and engagement (a la iBeacon). Getting mobile users to stores is one thing… what about after they get there.

Verve and others have already begun to answer that questions by correlating ad effectiveness to sales lifts and other metrics like location tracking and purchase data. To add another dimension, the company announced yesterday it will plug in to Apple’s iBeacon and Passbook standards.

From the press release:

Apple, Inc.’s Passbook is a pre-installed application on iPhones that allows users to save marketing messages, coupons, store cards, and other items in a “virtual wallet.” Apple’s iBeacon technology works with Bluetooth Low Energy devices (‘Beacons’) that enable iOS devices to react with a marketing message in close proximity.

For example, on behalf of a major national CPG manufacturer and in coordination with its retail partners, Verve is targeting specific users who, based on their location and context, are optimal recipients for the CPG brand message and the specific offer in a ‘drive to retail’ campaign. Consumers engaging with the ad have the option of saving the offer to Passbook. At retail, the offer is re-activated via Verve-supplied iBeacons. The solution then provides engagement, location and other analytics back to the Verve ad server.

This will clarify ad effectiveness in seeing what campaigns led to in-store sales. And the purchase data gathered can in turn plug back into the targeting engine for iterative campaign optimization. Indeed, Verve’s new integration plugs into it’s “Foot Traffic Index”.

Additionally for marketers, this solution enhances the already significant utility of Verve’s proprietary “Foot Traffic Index” a method of measuring the amount of lift in foot traffic attributable to a specific campaign. In combining Bluetooth LE beacon technology with device location observations, Verve is extending FTI’s usefulness to scenarios where location data are unavailable or imprecise, for example, indoor shopping malls or multi-story retail environments.

Verve’s unique combination of device location and beacon proximity intelligence makes FTI a much more effective tool for gauging a campaign’s performance in more challenging and densely populated retail locations. Marketers working with Verve on this new solution may either deploy low-cost beacons supplied by Verve specifically for the campaign or leverage existing beacon programs.

The Passbook tie in is interesting too. As we’ve written, Passbook has lots of potential in its standardization of coupon and ticketing formats. Planting it at the OS level fights the fragmentation that currently holds back user acclimation and developer adoption.

But it hasn’t taken off as fast as I expected: its value will be a function of network effect and how many developers build on it. I still believe that is coming and integrations like Verve’s will shine a light on its value and start that ball rolling.

Meanwhile iBeacon will sink or swim based on the same developer adoption (see shopkick’s play). But there’s great deal of momentum behind indoor location/engagement, and it’s the next logical step in the progression of mobile advertising.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTUnFXh3Enw

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