$20 an hour. That’s the price of a HomeJoy housekeeping professional. How big can the market for these services reasonable grow? Will these on-demand companies grow without taking a major bite of the approximately $8.5 billion in revenue from the industries that provide housekeeping services today?

Using the methodology explained in our first Local On-Demand Economy market posting, which examined the market for unpaid household work that is currently performed by the householder, we estimate that the Housekeeping Services vertical represents $57.8 billion in addressable revenue in 2015. The growth of this market depends on increasing homeowners’ and renters’ ability to earn income from some of the labor they do to support their home while spending to have others do household work they want to avoid.

By lowering overhead using digital logistics to match housekeepers and clients, as well as to collect feedback about the customer and worker’s experience, HomeJoy hopes to prosper as less agile companies flounder in employee costs that the San Francisco-based LODE company eschews. This flexibility comes at a cost, as HomeJoy has much more limited control over individual cleaners that contract with it than a firm like Merry Maids, where uniforms and policies are enforced as part of the employment agreement. Regulatory changes at the municipal, state and federal levels will be necessary to resolve the ongoing questions about the legal status of a “1099 worker” with regard to their obligations to uphold corporate standards, but for the sake of this analysis we will simply point out that brand experience will turn on the on-demand company’s ability to engage laborers in delivering a consistent customer experience.

The Housekeeping Services Industry
Housekeeping services are lumped into a variety of labor categories, including janitorial services and traveler accommodations, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As of May 2014, more than 70 percent of “maids” worked in hotels, motels and medical facilities. Approximately 260,000 housekeepers work in the home services market and drive approximately $8.5 billion in revenue for themselves, their franchise or housekeeping company. The median hourly wage for a maid in the United States is $9.67 an hour, and the top 10 percent of earners bring in $15.74 an hour.

Existing housekeeping and services companies, such as ServiceMaster’s Merry Maids as well as the Molly Maids franchises, are long-established players who see an emerging fight for their lives as on-demand companies revise the economics of service delivery. The result will likely be the transition of all these companies to on-demand labor models over the next few years, as 86-year-old ServiceMaster has in Europe, where it has launched on-demand home cleaning. However, these on-demand services will compete with their existing franchisees, leading to potentially declining overall revenue. ServiceMaster reported declining revenue in 2014 in its Franchise Services Group, where Merry Maids revenue is reported, of $253 million, down 2.4 percent year-over-year. The trend continued in Q1 2015, when ServiceMaster reported an additional 1.9 percent year-over-year decline in quarterly revenue.

Existing home and commercial services businesses have combined far-flung service businesses to establish their profitable foundations. ServiceMaster, for example, provides home security and insect/pest control services through its American Home Shield and Terminix groups. We anticipate that each of these services can stand on their own in the on-demand market, if the provider masters the infrastructure, marketing and engagement challenges involved.

At $12 to $15 an hour, HomeJoy’s compensation is comparable to the employee-based model of the traditional housekeeping business and slightly higher than the median hourly wage for maids reported by PayScale, $10.73 an hour. These figures suggest HomeJoy runs a topline margin of about 40 percent, higher than the average on-demand company margins at, for example, Uber. This will enable HomeJoy to concentrate on quality experience, which is the keystone to building a competitive offering and growing its market.

Based on our model, the housekeeping industry has converted only 14.7 percent of the addressable market in 2015 — that is, the people who can access and afford on-demand housekeeping services. There is plenty of room for growth, but much of that growth is predicated on the exchange of on-demand labor among household laborers, not simply the existing housekeeping market.

Table stakes
HomeJoy, which has acquired one company, GetMaid, is purportedly in discussions about a merger with Handy. Both companies have anted up to play at the consolidation game, bringing strong logistical and demand-generation tools to potential business relationships. The enduring question for all LODE companies will be “How many services make a minimum viable offering?”

Based on the early M&A activity in the pure-play housekeeping business, which has attracted between $240 million and $290 million in venture investments, it is clear that the appropriate mix of services that will attract both sufficient labor interest and customer attention is still to be discovered. Thumbtack, which also offers cleaning and assistant-like services for the home, reaches far beyond the cleaning category, offering plumbing and yard services, among others may be better prepared to win the share of customer necessary to grow. A combination of HomeJoy and Handy, should it come to pass, would compete more directly with Thumbtack.

But then there is the specter of Amazon Home Services, which promises a wide variety of vetted in-home services and already delivers more goods to directly to American home than any other online source. The bet by Amazon is simple: They can transform consumer attention to products around the house into services revenue related to delivering and using those products, as well as services that were previously found through the paper and online directories. Amazon’s primary competition for labor will likely be the directories and marketing services companies seeking to aggregate services businesses, such as TalkLocal, ReachLocal, as well as individual businesses competing through tools such as BreezeWorks, FreshLime and the recently announced Prompt.ly.

We anticipate intense consolidation by home services companies seeking to find the ideal mix of services and market reach. With the transition to on-demand labor, which we view as a logical and inevitable consequence of network technology, automation and organizational change, existing home services companies will face tremendous margin pressure and a few will certainly die, but none is assured to die from the competition coming from LODE startups. There is ample upside available if the LODE scenario leads to higher incomes for household workers.

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Google has been launching lots of products to carry its search dominance into a mobile world. Given that 4 out of 5 mobile minutes happen in-app, this sidesteps the very place where its dominance has been established: the browser. We recently had the chance to talk to Google about its vision (video below).

This ties in with things we’ve examined recently such as deep linking and push notifications. Google Now is also a key product the company is building for app-based local discovery and commerce. Many of these products were advanced and clarified during last week’s I/O conference.

Google’s Brendon Kraham is close to all of this, as the guy in charge of “building and developing Google’s next $1 Billion+ ad businesses.” That’s is obviously a big task and Kraham is examining lots of ways to extend Google’s capabilities, data and search dominance into this new mobile-oriented world.

In addition to the above products, this involves carrying forward Google’s legacy of innovation in performance-based local ads. In mobile, that translates to offline attribution, a la Estimated Total Conversions. This is just one way Google is planting its flag in the next decade’s ad equation.

“It’s still early, but I can see the future that is coming and even now we have the proxy metrics of ‘did somebody go into a store’,” Kraham told us, “and actually closing the loop with third party data partners for a store transaction. It just takes a bit more heavy lifting to get those insights.”

The video of his presentation and fireside chat is embedded below.

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BIA/Kelsey is partnering again with the Local Media Association to produce this year’s LMA Native Advertising Interactive Summit next July 15-16 in Washington, DC where we’ll share our latest native ad forecast, insights about marketplace dynamics and trend lines of how we’re seeing this sector evolve. (Note early bird discounts offered through June 15th). The plan overall is to offer a mix of data, best practices, hands-on workshops and take-home ideas for getting your native ad business into higher gear.

The program covers a lot of ground in just a day and half. Nancy Lane, LMA president kicks things off with white board session where she’ll be joined by several other speakers to Schurz Communications’ Kerry Oslund, VP of Publishing and Emerging Media, will share a disruptive new approach to native advertising they’re finding to be successful. Of course, Jeff Bezos’ Washington Post has done a lot of innovation around brands and native advertising as we’ll hear from Kelly Andresen, Director of the WP BrandStudio & Planning who will share winning case studies. You’ll hear speakers from Advance, Gatehouse, Desert Digital and Dispath among others discussion pricing and packaging native ad campaigns, content strategies, outsourcing, selling native effectively and since it’s Washington, we’ll also hear from Laura Sullivan, a staff attorney with the Federal Trade Commission who’s following native closely.

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The Local On-Demand Economy (LODE) will be all about transactions. The ease of transaction between buyer and seller will need to match the lowered-barriers and “immediacy” of the on-demand service and experience itself. Otherwise, LODE’s promise won’t be fulfilled. It’s all about the money.

Fortunately, lowered barriers is exactly the trend we’re seeing in payments, starting years ago with Paypal and extending to today with things like P2P transactions (Square Cash) and enterprise/ecommerce (Stripe). There’s also payment giants like MasterCard innovating for a LODE-centric world.

We held a webcast last week to discuss where this is all going. Led by BIA/Kelsey analyst Mitch Ratcliffe, the conversation included MasterCard and Flint Mobile. They both had lots to say about payments’ importance at the center of the LODE equation — not just the why, but also the how.

See the full webinar replay embedded below.

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Flint will be speaking at BIA/Kelsey NOW: Rise of the Local On-Demand Economy next Friday in San Francisco. Register here (Inside tip: Save $100 by using the discount code “MB100″).

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Button, the New York-based developer of mobile deep-linking integration tools for use in local on-demand services, announced the launch of Uber integration into third-party applications. Foursquare used the tools to add a button to its location-based social sharing application to add the ability to book an Uber ride.

When Foursquare members search for a location, Button’s tool passes location and contextual information, such as the name of a restaurant in addition to the address, to Uber. The data is used to generate a location- and customer-specific Uber car ordering button which is placed in the user’s Foursquare interface. It simplifies the user experience substantially and, BIA/Kelsey believes, represents how previously isolated applications on a mobile device can be combined to create new marketing opportunities. Uber, for example, will be providing Foursquare customers a special code for a discount on their ride. Although terms were not disclosed, the Button tool also provides Foursquare an opportunity to monetize its searches for transportation-related services.

“Within mobile, consumers are largely intolerant of ads and other elements that detract from a consumer’s journey,” Button co-founder and CEO Michael Jaconi told us. “You’re seeing an emergence [of] ‘buttons’ from all the titans of industry — seeking to match intent with its fulfillment — and many of these use cases must happen across app borders. That simplicity, that design, and the value that these app connections create is what we’ve set out build at Button.”

Mobile apps are typically “sandboxed” within the mobile operating system, preventing them from sharing any data with other apps. This adds complexity to the customer’s simplest tasks when moving between app screens. For example, iOS assigns completely separate protocols to each app running on an iPhone and all communication to and from the app must be routed through the app protocol. Button essentially scripts exchanges of data between apps, using either the local device’s internal connections or acting as an Internet intermediary between the device and multiple services to deliver integration in the user interface.

“Using Button simplified the process of integrating Uber into Foursquare. With a few lines of code we were able to create a seamless experience when requesting an Uber built directly into our app, saving us time and effort,” said Foursquare SVP of product management Noah Weiss in a release.

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Button cofounder Chris Maddern will be speaking at BIA/Kelsey NOW: Rise of the Local On-Demand Economy next week in San Francisco. Join us and save $100 by using the discount code “MR100″ when registering.

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BIA/Kelsey estimates that in 2015 the total addressable market for in-home on-demand services, including shopping time, travel and child/elder care, is 22.8 billion hours of currently unpaid household work, representing approximately 3.5 percent of total household work, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Time Use Survey. Using the reported average income of “1099 workers” from several sources of approximately $17 an hour, the total market this year, if fully engaged, could be worth up to $465 billion. At the current industry standard, a 20 percent share for the on-demand marketplace operators who connect customers and contractors, on-demand companies’ revenues potentially could be worth $93 billion in 2015.

We believe 2015 actual market penetration by on-demand companies appears, based on reported and leaked revenue data from various on-demand companies, to be approximately $18.5 billion, or 3.9 percent of total addressable market. Much of that revenue is captured in transportation, particularly by Uber, which is expected to book more than $10 billion in ride revenue in 2015. Note that Uber ride revenue includes drivers’ reported 80 percent share, giving Uber total fees of approximately $2 billion this year.

In short, there is 96.1 percent of a market unclaimed and it will grow at a compound annual rate of 13.50 percent through 2030 based on projected population growth and an increase in average on-demand earnings of 2.33 percent per year over that time, from $17-an-hour to $24-an-hour.

For now, Uber represents more than half of the revenue of organized 1099 labor. Much of Uber’s revenue comes from business travel, which is not included in the home services market, but it does claim considerable personal travel in cities where it is well known. Its rapid ascent suggests that similar growth could occur in any area where people have access to ad hoc networks of people and resources. Many of the carpools, childcare arrangements, cooking and helping services provided by neighbors to neighbors will be ingested into the formal economy through LODE organizations.

The household services market
Billions have been invested in home services companies in pursuit of work currently performed in the home by household members. In-home services, such as TaskRabbit, HomeJoy and InstaCart, cannot generate revenue if their offerings are too expensive for middle class households to replace with more profitable work in or out of the home. Affluent households can add these services at will, but their adoption of on-demand services will not deliver substantial economic growth, because workers must be able to afford to do contract work while substituting for their unpaid labor at home if there is to be a thriving market for local experience and services.

BIA/Kelsey Projected Addressable Market 2015-2030: Household On-Demand Labor

The rhetoric of LODE paints a vivid picture of on-demand workers busily exchanging services, sharing burdens while doing the jobs they most enjoy — it’s a promise on-demand companies are making to their prospective contractors. For example, a car to take the kids to school cannot cost $17 an hour for a mother making $12 an hour working at another task as an on-demand worker. If LODE home service workers are expected to adopt on-demand services as well as provide them, their earnings must exceed the cost of doing their own work at home.

The U.S. economy produced $16.77 trillion in GDP during 2013, the last year for which complete data is available. However, the calculation of GDP does not include unpaid household work. If it did, U.S. GDP would be several trillion dollars higher than it is reported today. Organizing this labor to bring it into the formal economy at a reasonable price with reasonable wages is the challenge to LODE companies if they expect to profit. That cannot be done while strangling the golden goose of ad hoc skilled and low-skilled labor with lower wages. Ultimately, both unpaid household labor and the work that can be exchanged for other services are essential to the economy, it’s time we counted both.

Household labor projections, 2015 – 2030
BIA/Kelsey has developed a model for projecting the addressable revenue in the home based on the householder’s ability to pay for services that they may forego doing themselves to make time for paid work in another area of their expertise. With reasonable and rising wages, household on-demand work can add up to $3.1 trillion to the U.S. economy by 2030 simply by formalizing transactions.

The long process of recognizing the value of work that contributes to the whole economy has ignored the unpaid work performed in the home by household members, particularly mothers. During the child-raising years, women doing unpaid household work an average of 32.4 hours each week on food preparation, cleaning, laundry, household management, shopping and more than 10 hours caring directly for children or adults. Men, by contrast, average 17 hours of unpaid household work each week, 60 percent of which involves food preparation and lawn care. Many of the questions about the future of work in the face of automation and robotic replacements for human labor will revolve around how to recognize the value of human engagement. Suggestions about a “guaranteed income,” recently floated by author Martin Ford in Rise of the Robots, among others, reflect how contributions to raising productive and engaged citizens will become compensated in the future.

Our research suggests that creating markets can, if they provide genuine incentives for doing great work, catalyze organized work in a variety of niche markets that previously existed in the dark economy, the work and exchanges that are not currently accounted for in a corporate profit and loss statement. Making “1099 labor” a cost within an on-demand company’s books blesses and confirms its value in the market.

Building from the Census’ American Time Use Survey, which describes in detail the activities that Americans do to support their home’s daily needs, BIA/Kelsey estimated the total number of hours of work currently performed without pay in the following categories:

• Food & drink preparation
• Cleaning
• Laundry and sewing
• Household management
• Lawn and garden care
• Maintenance and repair
• Caring for and helping household members (including eldercare)
• Caring for and helping household children
• Grocery shopping
• Travel related to unpaid household work

All these categories contribute to the overall estimated value of the on-demand household market in 2015. In the next posting, we’ll dig into the home cleaning and laundry markets, providing total and addressable market sizes. You’ll be surprised how many billion-dollar companies could be supported, if on-demand labor is given its chance at prosperity, too.

We estimate that 18 percent of the U.S. population can conveniently access local on-demand services today, mostly in the central cores of major metropolitan areas. Based on an April 2015 report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, “The Sharing Economy,” which found that 19 percent of internet users have tried an on-demand service — which we believe overstates the share of the population that can access these services because poor and unemployed people endure much lower connectivity rates — we have high confidence that our 18 percent addressable market estimate is sound.

Additionally, we adjusted the resulting hours of addressable on-demand labor by subtracting the U6 unemployment rate, which includes underemployed and frustrated workers who are highly unlikely to purchase on-demand services, to arrive at the most conservative estimate of LODE hours worked and revenue. Interestingly, when unemployment exceeds 12 percent or wages fall below the exchange threshold at which a worker can trade one form of labor for another form of service, our model produces negative results.

Building on this model, we’ll be delivering the first of our Local On-Demand Economy Insight papers, detailing each of the categories of unpaid work that could be displaced by LODE, as well as sizing existing industries that are threatened by the on-demand approach, shortly after BIA/Kelsey NOW. Join us at the show.

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Though “mopocalypse’s” impact didn’t live up to its hype, mobile website optimization remains critical. That’s particularly true for multi-location businesses that compete in several different markets at once. It’s all about getting data cleansed and organized.

That plays out in lots of ways, which we examined with Placeable during a session at BIA/Kelsey NATIONAL. The company has a good perspective as it works directly with lots of brands to get their location data and localized marketing strategies in order.

You can see my interview with the company embedded below, as well as chapter links that take you to each of the five “tips” we went over for optimizing multi-location campaigns. Stay tuned for lots more conference video footage.

Video chapter links

Multi-location marketing: who’s doing it best
Tip #1: Create landing pages for every location
Tip #2: Ways to make sure landing pages are complete and accurate
Tip #3: Make sure offers and promotions are refreshed often
Tip #4: Include comprehensive reviews and sources
Tip #5: Mobile landing pages: how to navigate mopocalypse
Conclusions & takeaways

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One of the many attributes of the local on-demand economy (LODE), is it’s potential to flip local advertising models we’ve known for more than a century. It will do this in some cases by replacing marketing with a commerce engine; or as we’re calling it, the “logistical last-mile” to the consumer.

This all results from a more direct linking of buyer and seller — and the systems in place to achieve that marketplace transparency in a more compressed way. With Uber, for example, instead of searching, viewing listings, reviews, calling… you simply press a button and a car shows up.

So the key to many LODE apps we’re seeing is to match buyer and seller more quickly and reliably than local search. That involves lots of performance and location tracking. Beyond technology chops, it’s all about building balanced two-sided marketplaces, and network effect.

A related excerpt from our LODE white paper is below. Consider it a primer for the discussion we’ll have on stage at BIA/Kelsey NOW. Let me know if you’d like to participate (mbolandATbiakelsey.com) and stay tuned for lots more coverage.

Flipping the Model

LODE’s departure from local search has important ramifications for marketers. Stepping back, consumer behavior has evolved from print directory lookups to search engines and even social networks to find items or services that fulfill specific needs with varying degrees of urgency.

These models have progressed towards more of a user pull and less of an advertiser push. The trend has also moved towards more targeted advertiser placement, to establish positioning in front of consumers at strategic times and places of explicit commercial intent.

In a print directory context, this means physical positioning — through size, color and heading priority — to capture that coveted phone call at a time of consumer need. For search engines, it means formulating the right keywords and ad groups to likewise capture high-intent clicks.

With search came certain efficiencies in reaching high-intent consumers in a more cost-efficient way than traditional media. LODE continues down that evolutionary path by aggregating real time consumer demand in a given service category, allowing nearby providers to respond accordingly.

So instead of a consumer search for a business — requiring a previously devised marketing plan where a message is placed in front of that user — LODE flips the model. User demand is captured and revealed for service providers to react in real time to a marketplace now made transparent.

“There’s no advertising in these apps, it’s purely a grossed-up transactional value,” Comcast Ventures Partner Michael Yang told BIA/Kelsey. “Local isn’t reviews anymore, it’s on demand… The business model is consumer pay, and the merchant is being aggregated into a network.”

Put another way, the need for advance advertising to stay competitive is eliminated in some cases. Service providers thriving with LODE don’t need to market themselves proactively to generate demand. They’re now given an operational tool to capture demand reactively.

This is analogous to the Just in Time manufacturing principle. A Japanese innovation popularized in the U.S. by Harley Davidson, and more recently by Tesla, inventory is produced much closer to its sale. This improves cash flows and reduces capital requirements for cost of goods sold.

In LODE services, capital requirements for customer acquisition are likewise reduced. Demand generation at the app level creates marketplace transparency to deploy inventory — for example, a service provider’s finite set of appointment slots — exactly where it’s needed in real time.

“What we’re seeing is yield optimization,” MyNeighbor CEO Brendan Benzing told BIA/Kelsey. “Uber in early days had a brick business which was town cars, but it was all the time in between rides that was the mortar. That’s the value that technology is finally extracting due to mobility.”

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All eyes are on Facebook when it comes to localized marketing. This was pronounced in the company’s recent revelation that 40 million SMBs now have active Pages (2 million advertise). And BIA/Kelsey’s own survey data indicate that social is the most prevalent marketing channel.

The biggest drivers for this according to Czaja are reach and targeting. More than 1 billion people use Facebook daily, the vast majority via mobile.  As for targeting, it’s more accurate on Facebook than most other digital media he asserted. This involves lots of granular audience profiling.

“We’re talking about real people and not cookies,” he said, adding that businesses can enhance targeting by “bringing their own data onto Facebook” for retargeting. FB can also target look-alike audiences with similar characteristics to a brand’s existing customers or target audience.

The full session video is below.

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Content and intelligence drive results in social media marketing according to SOCi founder and CEO Afif Khoury. He presented findings during a segment on social media at BIA/Kelsey NATIONAL (video below). This takes form in an actionable six-step process.

Social media continues to come in proximity with localized marketing, shown most recently by Facebook’s announcement that 40 million SMBs now have active Pages. And BIA/Kelsey’s own survey data indicate that social is the most prevalent marketing channel.

But the opportunity is greater among national advertisers that are increasingly localizing campaigns. National entities are generally more adoptive than SMBs when it comes to emerging media like social. And their size makes branding (conducive to social media) critical.

The why has largely been made evident, per the above and lots of evidence in the marketplace for social’s collision with local. The remaining question is how, and that’s where we’re seeing lots of experimentation and standards development from companies like SOCi.

“Most national brands seem to think they can capture a national audience with a single page,” said Khoury. “What they’re leaving behind is the hundreds of local pages that are getting reviews, getting comments, getting activity, but there’s nobody there.”

The session clip is embedded below and stay tuned for much more conference video and highlights.

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