Kelsey Group Forecast

We put out a press release this morning highlighting some top-level numbers from our forecast released to clients late last week. Here are some of the numbers featured in the release:

• Global print Yellow Pages revenues will increase 1.5 percent from $26.3 billion in 2005 to $28.4 billion in 2010.
• Global local search revenues (Internet Yellow Pages, local search and wireless) will increase 30.5 percent from $3.4 billion in 2005 to $13 billion in 2010.
• Global classified advertising revenues will decrease 0.2 percent from $79.5 billion in 2005 to $78.5 billion in 2010.
• Performance-based phone leads or "pay-per-phone call" revenues are expected to grow to $3.7 billion (in both online and offline media) by 2010 (this is U.S. only).

All percentages above are compound annual growth rates (CAGRs).

We added classifieds to the forecast this year because it involves the same user mind-set/behavior as Yellow Pages and Search: a user has a predetermined need/interest and is looking for a provider/seller to fulfill that need.

We also expanded the definition of "Local Search" to encompass online YP, search engines and wireless (mobile local) for similar reasons.

In the past we had been using the term "Local Search" in a broad sense to capture all these but simultaneously in a more narrow sense to refer to geotargeted lookups on search engines alone. That created some confusion in the marketplace. Also, the "form factor" between the IYPs and the local products of search engines are becoming virtually identical on the front end and the Yellow Pages Assn. has adopted the term "local search" as a branding/marketing vehicle as well. Ultimately, we probably will include classifieds engines in that category. But for now we declined to include them because of potential confusion and dilution of the term.