Forecast Calls for Flat Print Growth, Continued Online Ramp-Up

The Kelsey Group’s Global Print Yellow Pages, Internet Yellow Pages and Local Search Forecast is out today. The forecast has a five year outlook, comparing 2006 figures with 2011 projections. At a high level, here are some of the key takeaways:

•  The global print and online directory market is expected to grow at 4.9 percent (CAGR) from US$30.6 billion in 2006 to US$38.9 billion in 2011.
•  Global print revenues will be relatively flat for the period (CAGR 0.9 percent)  US$26.5 billion in 2006 compared with US$27.8 billion in 2011.
•  The global interactive directory market is expected to grow at 22.3 percent (CAGR) from US$4.1 billion to US$11.1 billion.
•  U.S. IYPs with traditional sales channels will grow at 30.7 percent (CAGR) through 2011 as the shift to digital products accelerates. Local search revenues will grow from US$922 million in 2006 to US$2.6 billion in 2011.
•  Total U.S. revenues for local search engines and Internet Yellow Pages will grow 26.1 percent (CAGR) through 2011 above the expected growth rate of the overall Internet ad market.
•  This year’s forecast divides U.S. digital revenues into two buckets  IYP display advertising (fixed price) and local search advertising. We forecast U.S. IYP revenues growing from US$624 million in 2006 to US$2.3 billion in 2011 (CAGR 29.9 percent).
•  Local search revenues will increase from US$922 million in 2006 to US$2.6 billion in 2011 (CAGR 23.2 percent).
•  Total European directory revenues will grow from 7.3 billion euros to 9.4 billion euros in 2011, a 5.1 percent CAGR.

The small net bump in print Yellow Pages will be driven mostly by innovation among some publishers. Investment in SEO  driven by SEM price hikes and resulting margin compression (Citysearch’s acquisition of Insider Pages last week is evidence of this)  will meanwhile contribute to some of the growth in the online segment, as will advertiser demand in online verticals.

Here is the press release and media coverage from ClickZ (SEO angle), MediaPost, iMedia Connection, Red Herring and InfoWorld.

TKG clients can log in and access the report at any time (broken down into two slide presentations for clients of The Kelsey Report and Interactive Local Media). These data will also be a focal point at the upcoming Drilling Down on Local Conference.